BJP’s declining popularity with voters exposes cracks within

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Signs of nervousness have become apparent among leaders of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party as questions are raised over the ‘inevitability’ of Narendra Modi’s government returning to office in the coming elections.

Memories of the historic mandate won by the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in 2014 are fading, with the bluff and bluster replaced by long faces at the recent meeting of the BJP’s National Council. Modi himself sat with a grim expression alongside his one-time mentor, the 91-year-old Lal Krishna Advani.

Party chief Amit Shah warned that Congress head Rahul Gandhi and other leaders were joining forces in a bid to defeat the BJP: ‘Political leaders who did not come face to face until the other day are coming together, as they realize that they cannot defeat Modi individually.’

In an apparent bid to consolidate the majority Hindu voters, Shah  talked about the religious significance of the Third battle of Panipat in 1761 and the controversial National Registry of Citizens in Assam. But he betrayed unease at how the political landscape is being reshaped.

The prime minister was also uncharacteristically circumspect, asking cadres to ‘understand the value of the organization’ and not depend on ‘their winning talisman’ (his own image) to take the party to victory. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley stressed the need for party workers to shift the narrative to positive aspects surrounding ‘Brand Modi’.

Speeches by the top BJP leaders were designed to shake off any signs of  complacency among party workers and volunteers as they prepare for the big electoral battle ahead. But how does one explain the Modi government’s sudden rush to open the public purse strings?

As it is an offshoot of the right-wing Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangha movement, the government’s recent decision to  provide 10% education and job reservations to the Economically Backward Sections appeared contradictory.

Changing narrative is a red flag

Then the NDA pumped an additional 60.84 billion rupees (US$855 million) into the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, set up by the former United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by Congress, which Modi had earlier described as a ‘living monument of the UPA government’s failure’.

The interim budget is likely to double the income tax limit for the service class to 500,000 rupees (US$7,000) and establish a ‘Telangana style’ package that includes a crop insurance plan for farmers at a nominal rate of one rupee (14 US cents). Goods and Services Tax penalties on small and marginal traders have also been removed.

 ‘Losses in the Hindi heartland states appear to have unnerved the BJP. Several governments in past decades have announced populist schemes at the fag end of their tenures. In quite a few cases, such tactics have backfired in terms of electoral outcomes,’ analyst CP Bhambri said.

Most recent opinion polls have pointed to a gradual slide in the ‘Modi persona’. CSDS-Lokniti surveys showed that support for Modi as prime minister had fallen to 34% by the middle of 2018, down from a high of 44% just 12 months earlier. Matching this trend, Gandhi was preferred as leader by 24% of respondents, up from just 9% in mid-2017.

Results in the recent state elections indicate that support for the BJP has gone the same way, but there are indications that it is still in denial.

 ‘The party lost the Hindi heartland states because of local issues and anti-incumbency sentiments against the state chief ministers. Elections to the Lok Sabha (lower house) will have completely different dynamics. Modi will come up trumps,’ BJP lawmaker Rakesh Sinha said.

The BJP’s sums may not add up

Blending a ‘development agenda’ with nationalist sentiment and Hindu religious rhetoric to hype up “Brand Modi”, the BJP election managers will soon start carpet-bombing key electorates. They say that 220 million people will directly benefit from central government schemes, well above   the 170 million votes that the BJP polled in the 2014 elections.

In addition, the ‘ModiCare’ or Ayushman Bharat scheme (the NDA government’s health insurance scheme) is expected to benefit 500 million people; and the party itself boasts a core strength of 100 million active members. If inflated estimates or overlapping beneficiaries are excluded, the BJP claims that it still has a voting strength of 500 million.

 ‘Even if 60% of these citizens vote for the party, the BJP will be safely home with a big majority,’ one senior party leader argued.

The BJP may get some some divine help as well for the big electoral test ahead, as the Supreme Court began hearing the Ayodhya temple case on January 10. ‘After the pre-electoral tie-up between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP’s dependence on the Ayodhya issue to bring about a polarization of votes on religious lines has become sharper,’ said a veteran Lucknow-based political watcher.

However, as past trends have demonstrated, election outcomes often are not determined by political chemistry and emotive issues, and cannot always be predicted through mathematical calculations.

In its pursuit of electoral politics, the party has made political compromises and struck up unprincipled alliances and friendships – often to the annoyance of the party’s core support base. In the just concluded assembly elections in Rajasthan, for instance, there were 464,000 None Of The Above voters (mainly BJP supporters) – about four times higher than the voting gap between the Congress and BJP.

If this is any indication, the BJP’s big challenge in the national elections appears to be building up from within the party itself.

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